Predicting the 2025-26 AFC West Turnout

Published: Friday, August 29, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

With the Chargers and Broncos returning to the playoffs in 2024, and the Raiders seeming to be on the rise going into 2025, the AFC West appears to be much more competitive heading into the new NFL season.

However, the West has long been held by the Chiefs and they obviously remain Super Bowl contenders, so a new division champion would be shocking to say the least.  With that said, it is time to close out my divisional predictions with the 2025-26 AFC West.

The Kansas City Chiefs

There really is not much to say either than the fact that as long as Patrick Mahomes is the starting quarterback for Kansas City, the Chiefs will own this division.  The Chiefs are in the midst of a dynasty, appearing in five of the past six Super Bowls, and winning three of them, while also reaching at least the AFC Championship Game in every year Mahomes has been the starter.

Kansas City did lose their stud All-Pro offensive guard Joe Thuney, but that will not change the trajectory of this franchise.  The defense is still elite (after returning their core starters), and arguably the better of the two units, as they played a massive part in getting the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl this past year.

The Chiefs will also be without Rashee Rice for the first six games due to suspension, and this could impact their offense out of the gates, but again, with Mahomes at the helm, he is the best man for the job at navigating the ups and downs of a long, arduous season, which is why they will extend their AFC West reign to a decade by capturing the one-seed with a 14-3 record.

The Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh turned the Chargers around in his first year in 2024, getting Los Angeles back to the playoffs with an 11-6 record.  The only issue is they were embarrassed in the Wild Card Round by a Texans team that were home underdogs.

The Chargers made big changes during the offseason, releasing DL Joey Bosa for cap relief, but signed Najee Harris and drafted Omarion Hampton to revamp their RB room.  Moreover, Los Angeles brought back the longtime Chargers WR Keenan Allen to help solidify their receiver core.

While the Chargers definitely present as a playoff team, the problem is I simply do not see them as a true Super Bowl contender like their divisional rival Chiefs are, year in and year out.  That said, I have the Chargers finishing at 11-6 and capturing the third Wild Card spot, but further progress after a playoff appearance is bleak.

The Denver Broncos

Following a year where the Broncos got back to the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 in 2015, they have a lot of hype behind them going into the coming season.  While Denver did make several notable additions, such as bringing in former 49ers such as S Talanoa Hufanga and LB Dre Greenlaw, as well as TE Evan Engram, there is a glaring issue.

The Broncos went 2-5 against playoff teams last year, but it gets worse as they also lost to the Bengals who were a playoff-caliber team, while one of those two wins came against the Chiefs bench players in Week 18. So, in reality, the Broncos went 1-6 against high-quality teams, while only beating up on those who had high draft selections in 2025.

Bo Nix had a solid rookie campaign, but I am still not able to put my faith behind him in believing he can consistently keep up in a tough AFC Conference.  For these reasons, I have the Broncos finishing 8-9 and missing out on the playoffs.

The Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have a drastically new look going into the coming season, with Pete Carroll manning the ship, while Geno Smith is in at quarterback and first-round pick Ashton Jeanty now controls the Las Vegas backfield. Add in stud TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers, and now that is an offense that looks very intriguing on paper.

However, the defense is a bit of a concern outside of EDGE Maxx Crosby, as the rest of the defensive line and secondary is a bit shaky.  That said, if Vegas could find a way to get things to work on the defensive side of the ball this year, they could very well surprise many people.

I am taking the conservative route in predicting that the Raiders season will be below-average, as I have them finishing at 6-11.  I cannot trust a slightly-above average QB in Smith to lead the Raiders to a 9-10 win season in a highly-competitive division, but I will say that the Raiders certainly are a sleeper team to sneak into the playoffs if everything goes right this year.

Projected AFC West Standings

1) Chiefs (14-3)
2) Chargers (9-8), 3rd Wild Card
3) Broncos (8-9)
4) Raiders (6-11)

The AFC West has long been in the hands of the Chiefs, as they look to make it a 10th straight year as division champions, but the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders will all be looking to change that trend, so find out how it all pans out when the NFL season kicks off on September 4th…

Ryan Nelke can be reached at nelkerya@shu.edu.

Posted in: sports,