Predicting the 2025-26 AFC East Turnout

Published: Tuesday, July 15, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

For half a decade now, the AFC East has been ruled by the Buffalo Bills, and as long as Josh Allen is at the helm, it is hard to imagine them being dethroned.  In recent years, the Dolphins have come the closest to ascending to the top of the division, but have faltered several times and have been subjected to a Wild Card spot.

The Jets and Pats remain in the bottom half of the division for now, but with a lot of changes in both of those organizations, they hope to flip the script in the 2025 season.  So, without further adieu, it is time to get into my predictions for the 2025-26 AFC East.

The Buffalo Bills

The regular season has never been a problem for the Allen-led Bills.  The only issue comes when Buffalo has to beat Kansas City in the playoffs, something which they have failed to do four consecutive times.  However, this article only covers their regular season outcome and what they will do within their division.

For that reason, it is easy to predict another dominant year for Buffalo, because as long as Allen is at the helm for this offense, they will always be among the elite of the league.  Allen is one of the few quarterbacks in NFL history to be dominant in all phases of the game, as he is great with his legs and has a cannon for an arm.

The Bills also went out this offseason and brought in edge rusher Joey Bosa, so if he could stay healthy, he may potentially be the piece that helps this franchise get over the Kansas City hump come January.  Regardless, this team will cruise this year barring an Allen injury, which is why I have them finishing 14-3 and winning the AFC East for the sixth straight year.

The Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins find themselves in a critical year which can determine the direction of their franchise and the future of their head coach, Mike McDaniel.  Overall, McDaniel’s tenure in Miami has been alright, as he has guided them to a 28-23 record and two playoff appearances.  However, the Dolphins have failed to advance past Wild Card Weekend, while missing the playoffs entirely in 2024.

Before even discussing playoffs, if this team even wants to reach that point this year, Tua Tagovailoa must be able to stay on the field, and perform up to his expected standards.  He has all the necessary weapons around him in De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle to produce, so many eyes will be on the sixth year quarterback.

Miami also made one of the most shocking moves of the offseason when they sent CB Jalen Ramsey and TE Jonnu Smith to Pittsburgh to bring back S Minkah Fitzpatrick, who they drafted back in 2018.  That said, with a lot of question marks regarding health and the secondary outside Fitzpatrick, I have Miami missing the playoffs at 9-8 in what is a stacked AFC conference.

The New York Jets

After a tumultuous two years in the Aaron Rodgers era, the franchise elected to part ways with the future Hall of Famer and bring in Justin Fields to be their next quarterback.  In many ways, this is a bleak outlook for a team with the longest current postseason drought in American sports, as Fields has yet to prove he is the needlemover that can get his squad to the playoffs.

Yes, Fields was 4-2 as a starter in Pittsburgh, but did this behind a stellar defense, and now joins a New York defense that took a step back last year.  Moreover, Fields holds an 0-23 record when his defense has allowed 21+ points, displaying his lack of being able to keep up when his defense does not lock down the opponent.

The Jets recently spent big to retain their young talent in WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner, and if this defense can return to what they looked like in 2023, this may be a dark horse team to watch out for.  Nonetheless, I will take the more modest approach, as I predict the Jets to finish with a 7-10 record.

The New England Patriots

New England has been one of several teams that has received hype this offseason, and for good reason.  For starters, they brought in Mike Vrabel to be their new head coach, and then went out and spent big in free agency.  The Patriots bolstered their defense with the signings of DT Milton Williams, LB Harold Landry III, and CB Carlton Davis III.

Offensively, they brought in WR Stefon Diggs and RT Morgan Moses, while also anxiously awaiting what they will see in the second year of quarterback Drake Maye.  Even with all of these additions, this Patriots season will be defined by how much Maye progresses.

If Maye can play near or even at the level that fellow quarterback Jayden Daniels did last year, reaching the playoffs is almost a certainty for this franchise.  Nevertheless, I am just not ready to say that this Pats team can keep up with some of the juggernauts of this conference, which is why I have them finishing at 5-12.

Projected AFC East Standings

1) Bills (14-3)
2) Dolphins (9-8)
3) Jets (7-10)
4) Patriots (5-12)

The AFC East currently pits the Bills as the frontrunners, but the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots will all be looking to shake things up, so find out how it all pans out when the NFL season kicks off on September 4th…

Ryan Nelke can be reached at nelkerya@shu.edu.

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