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Predicting Every First Round Matchup of the NHL Playoffs
Published: Saturday, April 19, 2025
by Ryan Nelke
Ever heard of Christmas in April? Well, now you have. Unwrap your gifts, as the Stanley Cup playoffs are finally upon us, with the first round kicking off this weekend. There are the expected familiar faces, some newcomers, and several intriguing storylines, so let’s dive right into the action and predict every matchup of the first round.
Washington Capitals (M1) vs Montreal Canadiens (WC2)
The Capitals are back in the playoffs again this year, but in a much different position as they held the second wild card spot last year. This time around, they are the top dogs of the Metropolitan and were the very first team to clinch a spot in this year’s playoffs.
On the other hand, it took the Canadiens all 82 games to clinch a spot, as they defeated the Hurricanes 4-2 in the final game of the season, getting back to the postseason for the first time since 2021.
The two stories of Washington’s season have been most notably Alex Ovechkin’s chase for the goal record, which he broke on April 6 against the Islanders, but also how they cruised the entire season and dominated anything in their path, en route to being crowned Metropolitan champs.
Moreover, Logan Thompson has been stellar in the net this season, posting a 31-6-6 record with a .910 save percentage. That said, it’s a tough task ahead for this young Montreal team led by Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Lane Hutson, so the pick here is easily Washington.
PREDICTION: Capitals in Five
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs New Jersey Devils (M3)
The Hurricanes and Devils are set to meet for the second time in the past three years, but the big story this time around is that New Jersey will be without their franchise centerpiece, Jack Hughes. It has been a bumpy ride for the Devils since then, but they have still proved they are a worthy contender as they have been magnificent on special teams and boast a strong goaltending duo, led by Jacob Markstrom.
The Canes are exactly the team they have been over the past several years, with the only cause for complaint being their goaltending duo, but it is not something that is a glaring issue. With the star power they present and the gritty defense they play, it will be hard for New Jersey to get by them, especially without Jack Hughes. For those reasons, Carolina will be the team to move on.
PREDICTION: Hurricanes in Six
Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs Ottawa Senators (WC1)
The Battle of Ontario is back on, with the Senators getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. It is also a first for the Leafs, as they won the Atlantic Division for the first time since they joined it in the 2013-14 season. It’s been another great regular season for Toronto, with Mitch Marner reaching 100 points for the first time in his career, as well as Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares all eclipsing 70+ points.
However, this Ottawa team is no pushover, led by captain Brady Tkachuk, while being spearheaded by stud goaltender Linus Ullmark. The young guns of Tim Stutlze and Jake Sanderson have been impressive this year, and should contribute towards making this series a fun one. The pressure is on Toronto, and they know it, while the Senators are playing with house money. This author likes the upset here.
PREDICTION: Senators in Seven
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs Florida Panthers (A3)
The battle of Florida is always renewed, with the Bolts taking on the Cats for the second straight year. The defending champs are still led by the formidable core of Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Reinhart, with Sergei Bobrovsky still between the pipes.
For Tampa, Nikita Kucherov leads the way with his second straight 120+ point season. He is surrounded by the likes of Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, and Brandon Hagel, who each have produced 80+ points.
This is by far the toughest first-round matchup to decide in the Eastern Conference, with both teams being top contenders to take home the cup this year. Both of these teams are built for the postseason, but when examining recent play, the Panthers have been extremely sluggish, and the health of Tkachuk is still up in the air; the edge goes to the Lightning.
PREDICTION: Lightning in Six
Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs St. Louis Blues (WC2)
The Blues were probably the last team that the Jets wanted to see in the first round of the playoffs, as St. Louis is blazing hot going into the playoffs, including a 12-game win streak that helped get them there
However, Winnipeg has been phenomenal this year, as they have been carried by the soon-to-be three-time Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck, who produced a 46-12-3 record with a .924 save percentage.
Despite the Jets 116-point season, this Blues team will give them a run for their money with 70+ point scorers Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou leading the way. With that said, while St. Louis will give Winnipeg a scare, the Jets will do just enough to move on to the second round.
PREDICTION: Jets in Six
Dallas Stars (C2) vs Colorado Avalanche (C3)
While the Lightning-Panthers matchup was the hardest to predict on the Eastern Conference side of things, this showdown is arguably the toughest to pick out of all eight first-round contests. Dallas is looking to return to (but also get past) the Western Conference Finals for the third straight year. With Jake Oettinger in the net, supplanted by the key pieces of Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, and Matt Duchene, they certainly have a good shot at doing so.
However, the Avs' one-two punch of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar is so menacing, and Colorado seems to have figured out their goaltending issue ever since bringing in Mackenzie Blackwood mid-season, as he’s gone 22-12-3 with a .913 save percentage. Blackwood will be the key to this series, and if he can match or even outperform Oettinger, the Avs should move on.
PREDICTION: Avalanche in Seven
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs Minnesota Wild (WC2)
The Knights are once again atop the Pacific Division. As a result, they will meet the Wild in the first round, who secured a trip to the playoffs with a win in Game 82 of the season. It’s been an interesting season for Minnesota, who once sat in first place of the Central Division back in February, but stumbled down the stretch, doing just enough to ensure a wild card spot. A big reason for this was the absence of Kirill Kaprizov, who was out since the end of January, but finally made his return in April.
On the opposing side, the Knights are hungry to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup again, and have the roster to do so with Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, and Pavel Dorofeyev leading the way. Stanley Cup winner Adin Hill has also been fantastic this year again, and his playoff experience should contribute to this star-studded team cruising past the Wild.
PREDICTION: Golden Knights in Four
Los Angeles Kings (P2) vs Edmonton Oilers (P3)
In a story we have all seen time and time again, the Kings and Oilers meet in the first round for the FOURTH straight year. This time around, though, Los Angeles seems to have a much better shot at coming out victorious, as Edmonton is banged up heading into the most important time of the year.
The Kings don’t boast one premier point producer, but have a bunch of guys capable of coming up big, like Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, and Quinton Byfield. More importantly, Darcy Kuemper has been a stud in the net for LA this year, posting a 31-11-7 record with a .921 save percentage.
However, let’s not forget this matchup features Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Whenever these two guys are on the ice, it is nightmare fuel for the opponent, and it has been this way the past three years for the Kings.
What scares this author, though, is the inconsistency of netminder Stuart Skinner, who has an .894 save percentage this year. This matchup is contingent upon the play of Skinner. If he can play akin to what he showed in last year’s postseason, Edmonton should manage to squeak by.
PREDICTION: Oilers in Seven
Ryan Nelke can be reached at ryan.nelke@student.shu.edu.Posted in: sports,