NFL Divisional Round Preview: Who's Going to Championship Weekend?

Published: Thursday, January 16, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

Wild Card Weekend is in the books, and frankly, it was underwhelming. Of the six matchups, only one delivered real drama—the Commanders kept their Cinderella run alive by ousting the Buccaneers with a doink-and-in off the right post. The other five games were blowouts, all decided by 12 or more points, though the Texans upset the road-favorite Chargers, and the Rams ended the Vikings' 14-win season swiftly and decisively. For college football fans, maybe the “committee” should’ve picked the Bengals...

The AFC bracket is a repeat of last year—Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Texans—though with fresh matchups. Over in the NFC, it’s mostly familiar faces, except for the Commanders, who hope to shock the world in Detroit this Saturday. Let’s dive into my divisional round predictions.

Saturday 4:30 p.m. – (4) Texans at (1) Chiefs

Many, myself included, thought last week might seal the Texans' fate as they stumbled through the end of the regular season. This seemed true when they trailed the Chargers 6-0 late in the first half. But on 3rd and 16, C.J. Stroud recovered his fumble and launched a long pass, sparking a turnaround. The Texans led 10-6 at halftime and never looked back, cruising to a 32-12 win.

In Kansas City, the Chiefs starters have been on an extended break, last playing on Christmas Day. While this rest benefits Patrick Mahomes and company, it raises concerns about potential rust. Still, aside from a meaningless Week 18 game against Denver, the Chiefs went 15-1, with their only loss on the road to Buffalo.

The Texans exceeded expectations last week, giving them a shot here, but against the Chiefs, they'll need their best performance yet. Reid, Mahomes, and a dominant defense find ways to win, and while rust could factor in, I expect them to survive another week.

PREDICTION: Texans 16, Chiefs 22

Saturday 8:00 p.m. – (6) Commanders at (1) Lions

Washington's unexpected journey continues as the Commanders find themselves among the final eight teams. Their victory came with a bit of luck—Baker Mayfield and Jalen McMillan’s botched snap led to a touchdown four plays later, flipping the game’s momentum. Still, Daniels delivered when it mattered most, and the Washington defense held the Bucs in check. Zane Gonzalez’s kick, with a friendly bounce off the upright, sealed the deal, sending this young, thrilling team to Detroit.

Washington’s task couldn’t be more daunting. As the week’s biggest underdogs (-9.5), they face a Lions squad many see as title favorites. Jared Goff has thrown for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs has totaled nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. With David Montgomery returning, the “Sonic and Knuckles” duo is back. The receiving corps shines, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams each topping 1,000 yards, and Sam LaPorta adding 700+ yards and seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, Aaron Glenn’s defense has been clutch, notably shutting down the Vikings to secure the NFC North title and the top seed in the playoffs.

I was wrong last week picking the Bucs to end the Commanders' season, but I’m doubling down and picking against Washington again. The Lions are on a mission to return to the conference championship game and win it, and this Commanders team won’t stop them. The Lions are my lock of the week, winning big in a high-scoring affair.

PREDICTION: Commanders 31, Lions 45

Sunday 3:00 p.m. – (4) Rams at (2) Eagles

I proudly predicted the Rams' upset, nailing their 27-point total, though I didn’t expect it to be a dominant 27-9 win. Los Angeles executed perfectly without relying heavily on Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who combined for just six catches and 73 yards. Ahkello Witherspoon’s strip-sack and Jared Verse’s 57-yard recovery touchdown sealed the Vikings’ fate, sending the Rams to Philadelphia for a shot at the NFC Championship.

The Eagles' regular season story—MVP-level Saquon Barkley and lockdown defense—was on full display Sunday. Barkley ran for 119 yards but left about 60 more and a touchdown on the field by sliding before midfield. Outside of Barkley, the offense sputtered after the first quarter, with Hurts completing 13 of 22 passes for 131 yards and A.J. Brown matching his sideline reading tally in receptions. Meanwhile, the defense dominated, smothering Jordan Love with three picks and holding Green Bay to 10 points.

Despite both teams winning, Los Angeles outperformed expectations while Philly underperformed. The more I think about this game, the more I want to take the Rams for a Hollywood-style rematch between Stafford and the Lions. But then I remember how Barkley put up 255 yards on Los Angeles in November. This Eagles team is better than the Vikings on both sides, making them a tougher challenge. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams pull off the win, but I’m still leaning slightly toward the Eagles.

PREDICTION: Rams 20, Eagles 23

Sunday 6:30 p.m. – (3) Ravens at (2) Bills

The week's main event takes us to Highmark Stadium in Buffalo for a huge showdown between the Ravens and Bills. Baltimore, fresh off a dominant 28-14 win over the Steelers, saw Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry run wild, combining for nearly 300 rushing yards. Jackson’s MVP-caliber play carried into the postseason with two touchdowns and several highlight reels. The defense stifled Russell Wilson and Pittsburgh, holding them to just 14 points. With everything clicking, it feels like now is Baltimore’s time to take the next step.

Buffalo stands in their way, having dominated Denver 31-7 in a surprising win. Despite expectations for a tough season, Josh Allen led the Bills to another AFC East title with a 13-4 record, racking up 40 total touchdowns and just six interceptions. James Cook made a huge leap, going from four touchdowns in his first two seasons to 16 in 2024. While Buffalo's defense isn't perfect, they allowed just 17 points per game in the regular season, excluding games against the Rams and Lions.

With star power and high stakes, this matchup is a must-see. Can Lamar Jackson return to the AFC Championship and face the Chiefs again, or will Josh Allen lead Buffalo past the Ravens and finally conquer Kansas City? It’s a toss-up, but I’m picking Buffalo. The numbers show that, come playoff time, Allen consistently outperforms Jackson, and that could be the deciding factor.

PREDICTION: Ravens 34, Bills 37

After the Divisional Round, check back for part three of these predictions, featuring the final four teams vying for a Super Bowl LIX berth.

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