NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Preview: Who's Moving On?

Published: Friday, January 10, 2025

by Ryan Nelke

After four and a half months of exciting NFL action, which has featured the Chiefs conjuring up “dark magic” to achieve a 15-2 record, Saquon Barkley coming inches from breaking Eric Dickerson’s rushing record, and the end of commercial-free NFL RedZone, the playoffs are finally here.

The expected stalwarts—Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Lions, and Eagles—are in the playoffs, but there are plenty of surprises. Who would’ve guessed the Vikings, Broncos, and Chargers would win double-digit games and avoid watching from home in January? Somehow, Sam Darnold is leading a 14-win squad (in a wild-card spot), and Bo Nix, the sixth QB taken in the 2024 draft, is one of two rookie signal-callers in the postseason. Let’s dive into predictions for these six first-round matchups.

Saturday 4:30 p.m. – (5) Chargers at (4) Texans

The first NFL playoff matchup is a clash of contrasting expectations. The Chargers entered the Jim Harbaugh era with tempered hopes, having lost key offensive pieces and coming off Brandon Staley's underwhelming tenure. Yet, Harbaugh’s debut season exceeded all predictions, as Los Angeles finished 11-6, clinching the No. 5 seed in Week 18 and dodging a tough Ravens matchup.

Houston, on the other hand, started with lofty ambitions after C.J. Stroud’s stellar rookie season, which included an AFC South title and a playoff win. However, injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell left the Texans shorthanded, forcing Nico Collins to shoulder the offensive load. Stroud regressed slightly, posting 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, and Houston stumbled to the finish line.

Momentum favors the Chargers, who ride a three-game win streak into the postseason. Justin Herbert leads a balanced offense, while the top-ranked defense excels in shutting opponents down. Meanwhile, the Texans went 2-3 down the stretch, barely scraping by the Jaguars and Dolphins. The edge here belongs to Los Angeles.

PREDICTION: Chargers 27, Texans 20

Saturday 8:00 p.m. – (6) Steelers at (3) Ravens

The euphoria in the Steel City has quickly faded, as the Steelers stumbled through a tough final stretch. Mike Tomlin had many believing this year might be different, but a 10-7 finish feels all too familiar. Despite frequent playoff appearances, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a postseason game since 2016. The initial spark under Russell Wilson has fizzled, with the offense struggling to score more than 17 points and the once-reliable defense showing cracks.

Baltimore is peaking at the right time. Undefeated since their bye, the Ravens have scored 31+ points in every game. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have been unstoppable, with Jackson tallying 45 total touchdowns and Henry rushing for 1,921 yards and a franchise-record 16 scores. While the defense has struggled against the pass, it’s tightened up post-bye, allowing no more than 17 points since Week 15.

Like the Chargers-Texans matchup, these two teams are heading in different directions. While Tomlin has had John Harbaugh’s number in recent years, this is the time of year when Pittsburgh tends to collapse, and I expect that trend to continue.

PREDICTION: Steelers 19, Ravens 30

Sunday 1:00 p.m. – (7) Broncos at (2) Bills

The Broncos' playoff drought is finally over, marking their first postseason appearance since Peyton Manning's Super Bowl 50 swan song in 2015. Sean Payton's leadership and rookie Bo Nix’s impressive debut flipped the script for a franchise many pegged for a 2025 top draft pick. Instead, Denver thrives, thanks largely to a stout defense ranked top 10 in points allowed, yards allowed, and takeaways.

The Broncos' reward for finally making it back to the playoffs? A matchup with the hungry, ultra-motivated Bills. Buffalo has come close during the Josh Allen era but has never been able to get past the Chiefs. If there were ever a year for them to do so, it would be this one, with Allen playing at an MVP level, accounting for 40 total touchdowns while limiting interceptions to just six. While the defense has been inconsistent at times (against the Rams and Lions), it has mostly stepped up as Allen plays superhero.

Buffalo has the experience, talent, and an MVP on their side, while Denver is making its first playoff appearance in years. It has been a solid season for the Broncos, and the future looks bright, but this isn’t their time. The Bills will make a statement with a dominant victory.

PREDICTION: Broncos 13, Bills 31

Sunday 4:30 p.m. – (7) Packers at (2) Eagles

Only one No. 7 seed has advanced under the expanded playoff format: the Packers, who upset the Cowboys last year. Green Bay is back in the same spot, facing another tough NFC East foe. This time, Jordan Love had a solid sophomore season, but Josh Jacobs stole the show, rushing for 1,329 yards and 16 touchdowns. On defense, Xavier McKinney’s eight interceptions were a game-changer, anchoring a unit that held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game—one of just six defenses to do so.

Saquon Barkley has been the star for Philadelphia, rushing for 2,005 yards in his debut season with the Eagles and coming close to breaking the record against his former team, the Giants, before sitting out Week 18. While the offense has been steady, the defense has truly shined, allowing just 17.8 points per game. Anchored by Pro Bowlers Zack Baun and Jalen Carter, the unit also boasts an improved secondary led by standout rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

Pulling off the improbable two years in a row will be tough for Green Bay, especially against a dominant Eagles team poised for a Super Bowl run. While anything is possible, Philadelphia's elite play on both sides of the ball will end the Packers' season the same way it began—with a loss.

PREDICTION: Packers 21, Eagles 28

Sunday 8:00 p.m. – (6) Commanders at (3) Buccaneers

Like the Packers and Eagles, the Commanders and Buccaneers met in Week 1, with Tampa cruising to a 37-20 win. Since then, Washington has transformed, finishing 12-5 behind Jayden Daniels, a near-lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year. His stellar play elevated Terry McLaurin to career highs of over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Tampa's journey was bumpier. At 4-6 by the bye, their playoff hopes hinged on overtaking Atlanta. The Falcons faltered, benching Kirk Cousins after a rough stretch, and the Bucs clawed back, clinching the division with a Week 18 scare. Baker Mayfield had a career year (4,500 yards, 41 TDs), while rookie Bucky Irving broke out with 1,122 rushing yards and 8 scores.

If not for Vikings-Rams, this would be the hardest game to call. Both teams have strong cases: Mayfield and Tampa were here last year, winning a playoff game and pushing the Lions. The Commanders feel like last year’s Texans, an upstart squad with momentum. Still, in the playoffs, experience often prevails—so I’m siding with Tampa Bay.

PREDICTION: Commanders 23, Buccaneers 24

Monday 8:00 p.m. – (5) Vikings at (4) Rams

The Vikings vs. Rams is the toughest matchup of Wild Card Weekend. Minnesota makes history as the first 14-win team in this round, an unlikely feat considering their quarterback options—Sam Darnold, once a certified bust, or J.J. McCarthy, who got injured in preseason. Darnold stepped in and led them to an improbable 14-win season, aided by head coach Kevin O’Connell’s seamless integration of Darnold into a talented offense featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores also deserves credit for turning the defense into one of the league’s best.

The Rams, initially on a rebuild path after a 2-4 start, found new life after a big win over the Vikings in October, eventually claiming the division title. With Sean McVay at the helm, Matt Stafford leading the offense, and the receiving duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, they remain a formidable playoff contender. The big question is which version of the Rams will show up: the team that dominated Buffalo in Week 14 or the one that struggled in Weeks 15-17?

It’s a tough call. Will Stafford win outside his 2021 Super Bowl run? Will Darnold make history in his first playoff appearance? Will the Rams’ experience prevail, or will Minnesota conquer its playoff demons? It’s anyone’s game. We’ll find out Monday night.

PREDICTION: Vikings 24, Rams 27

After the Wild Card Round results, make sure to check back for part two of these playoff predictions, which will feature the top teams from each conference: the Chiefs and Lions.

Ryan Nelke can be reached at ryan.nelke@student.shu.edu. 

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