Contenders or Pretenders: Analyzing NFC Playoff Chances as the Postseason Looms

Published: Thursday, December 12, 2024

by Ryan Nelke

December football is officially here, so the playoffs are right around the corner. What better time for us to look at the picture painted so far? The expected powerhouses, like the Lions and Eagles, sit atop the NFC, but this year’s postseason includes some surprise squads, including the Vikings and Commanders.

This mix of elite teams and unexpected wild cards sets the stage for an exciting January, where franchises will face win-or-go-home scenarios. While some teams are built for big moments, not all will be able to keep up when their seasons hang in the balance of a single contest. So, without further ado, let’s evaluate each NFL squad’s chances this year and determine whether they are contenders or pretenders.

 

Detroit Lions (12-1)

The "same old Lions" narrative is finally a thing of the past, as Detroit has taken the league by storm this season with an NFL-leading 11-game win streak. A potent offense, led by Jared Goff and a star-studded supporting cast of "Sonic and Knuckles," Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, makes this team extremely difficult to stop. If the Lions reach the Super Bowl, they may even have Aidan Hutchinson back, as he broke his fibula in Week 6 against Dallas. The only obstacle standing in the way of a Super Bowl appearance — and potentially a victory — might be head coach Dan Campbell. His hyper-aggressive play-calling could cost them a playoff game, as it did in last year’s NFC Championship game against San Francisco.

VERDICT: Contenders

 

Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)

The Eagles appeared to be spiraling after the first month of play, sitting at .500 with countless fans calling for Nick Sirianni’s job. However, their loss to Tampa Bay on Sept. 29 was the last time they dropped a game, as they’ve won nine straight since.

Saquon Barkley’s transition from New York to Philadelphia has elevated the team to another level. He is in the thick of the MVP conversation, having rushed for 1,623 yards with a chance to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105. 

Even in a season where Barkley has drawn much of the attention, Jalen Hurts has also delivered another standout performance with 29 total touchdowns and only five interceptions. If the Eagles’ core pieces remain healthy come playoff time, they will be among the top contenders, alongside Detroit, for the NFC crown.

VERDICT: Contenders

 

Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

While Seattle has put together another solid season and leads the division, it’s hard to see how this team matches up against the previous two discussed. The Seahawks have been good enough to reach the playoffs in the Geno Smith era and boast solid weapons like Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, they are not elite enough to make a deep postseason push. This team will go as far as Smith takes them, and unfortunately for their fans, that likely won’t be past the wild-card round.

VERDICT: Pretenders

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

The Buccaneers got exactly what they wanted out of the Tom Brady era. Following his retirement, it appeared the franchise was heading for a rebuild when Baker Mayfield was brought in to compete for the starting job with Kyle Trask.

However, Mayfield has experienced a career resurgence in the Sunshine State. Not only did he lead the team to a division title and a playoff win last year, but he also has them in command of the NFC South again. He will now have to continue the playoff push without star wide receiver Chris Godwin, who was injured Monday night against the Ravens.

The Buccaneers are straddling the line between contender and pretender, but despite wins over both Detroit and Philadelphia this season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to get past either team in the postseason.

VERDICT: Pretenders

 

Minnesota Vikings (11-2)

Who would have thought Sam Darnold would have the Vikings at 11-2 by Week 15? The answer is nobody. Credit Kevin O’Connell for resurrecting Darnold’s career and leading the team to one of the best records in the NFL.

The other side of the ball has also been a strong suit, as the Brian Flores-led defense is allowing just 18.5 points per game, ranking sixth in the league.

However, I’ve seen this story with the Minnesota franchise too many times: they excel in the regular season but falter in must-win games. I’m not sold on this team as a top contender.

VERDICT: Pretenders

 

Green Bay Packers (9-4)

The Packers came close to knocking off the top-seeded 49ers last year and continuing their Cinderella run as a No. 7 seed but ultimately fell short. Green Bay is back in a wild-card spot this season, despite an impressive 9-4 record in a tough NFC North division. The additions of Josh Jacobs and Xavier McKinney have paid dividends, with Jacobs ranking third in the league in rushing and McKinney tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven. If Jordan Love can minimize mental errors and turnovers in the postseason, the Packers have the potential to make a deep run.

VERDICT: Contenders

 

Washington Commanders (8-5)

Jayden Daniels' immediate emergence was reminiscent of C.J. Stroud's breakout last year, and the Commanders' season overall is similar to the 2022 Giants. Both teams started strong but slowed down and just managed to make the playoffs. It remains to be seen if the Commanders can finish the job, as their next four matchups include the Saints, Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys—a tough road ahead. The performance against Tennessee before the bye was promising, but with the Rams, Falcons, and potentially even the Buccaneers close behind, simply securing a playoff spot will be Washington's first priority. As for their potential success in the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine them making a significant impact in the first year of the Daniels-Quinn era.

VERDICT: Pretenders

 

Los Angeles Rams (7-6)

Unlike other teams mentioned so far, the Rams are not currently in a playoff spot, despite holding a 7-6 record. However, a massive win against the red-hot Bills kept them relevant in this conversation. They face a quick turnaround with a must-win game against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football.

The next three games are against the Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks, all of which are winnable. This sets up a potential 10-7 or 11-6 finish. Quarterback Matt Stafford brings big-game experience from his Super Bowl victory in the 2021-22 season, while Cooper Kupp continues to shine. Rookie receiver Puka Nacua has elevated his game to become one of the league’s best wideouts.

The Rams struggled early in the season, starting 1-4 before the bye week. But if they can avoid any more setbacks, they could surprise some teams in January.

VERDICT: Contenders

 

Atlanta Falcons (6-7)

Kirk Cousins and the Falcons appeared to be cruising through the first half of the season, sitting comfortably in first place at 6-3. Since then, Atlanta has dropped its last four games, and Cousins has posted a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 0-8 during this stretch.

Fortunately for the Falcons, three of their final four games are against the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers, with a tougher matchup against the Commanders in Week 17.

Even if the Buccaneers stumble down the stretch or the Falcons manage to earn a wild card spot, this team has shown it isn’t consistent enough to compete with the league’s best. For these reasons, I’m skeptical about their chances, even if they make the playoffs.

VERDICT: Pretenders

Ryan Nelke can be reached at ryan.nelke@student.shu.edu.

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