Contenders or Pretenders: Analyzing AFC Playoff Chances as the Postseason Looms

Published: Monday, December 9, 2024

by Ryan Nelke

December football is here, signaling that the playoffs are just around the corner. What better time to assess the picture painted for us so far? The expected powerhouses, like the Chiefs and Bills, sit atop the AFC, but this year’s postseason mix includes several surprise teams, such as the Chargers and Broncos.

This blend of established contenders and intriguing wildcards sets the stage for an exciting January, filled with countless storylines. While some teams are built for the big moments ahead, others may falter when their seasons are on the line. Without further ado, let’s evaluate each AFC squad’s chances this year and determine whether they are contenders or pretenders.

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)

Who knows what’s brewing in the cellars of Arrowhead, but whatever the Chiefs are conjuring up is helping them scrape out wins by the narrowest of margins. While an offensive core of Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, and Travis Kelce is undoubtedly formidable, it’s the defense that has shined this season, allowing just 19.4 points per game. The back-to-back champs appear poised to have the AFC run through their building once again, solidifying their status as a glaring threat.

VERDICT: Contenders

Buffalo Bills (10-3)

While the Bills do not hold the No. 1 seed or the best record in the AFC, they appear to be the conference's top team, led by Josh Allen, who is in the midst of an MVP campaign. Buffalo remains the only team to defeat the defending champions this season. In a year when many expected them to regress, Allen has carried the team, which is one of only two squads averaging more than 30 points per game.

Defensively, the Bills are well-rounded, ranking inside the top 10 in points allowed per game. If the defense can deliver during the playoffs, this Buffalo team will be a formidable contender, with Allen leading the charge.

VERDICT: Contenders

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)

This is the best Pittsburgh team since the Roethlisberger era, and it hasn’t required elite quarterback play—just solid performances from Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Since Wilson took over, the team has gone 6-1 while averaging 28.4 points per game.

Their defense, long the backbone of the franchise, remains dominant, with T.J. Watt leading the charge. However, January football is a different challenge. It often demands an elite quarterback to push through, and given Mike Tomlin’s playoff history and questions about Wilson’s ability to perform at that level, it’s hard to place full trust in this squad.

VERDICT: Pretenders

Houston Texans (8-5)

For a while, the Texans appeared to be a formidable team, starting the season with a 5-1 record as free-agent addition Joe Mixon elevated his game after leaving Cincinnati. However, as the season progressed, it became increasingly clear that C.J. Stroud has regressed, struggling to replicate the success of his rookie campaign. Recent performances against the Titans and Jaguars have only amplified concerns, with the Texans losing to Tennessee and narrowly edging past Jacksonville. While this team shows promise for the future, given Stroud's current level of play, a deep playoff run seems unlikely.

VERDICT: Pretenders

Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

While Baltimore sits at 8-5, the duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry has been a nightmare for opposing defenses. Jackson boasts a stellar 29-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while Henry has racked up more than 1,400 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns. However, the Ravens’ pass defense remains a glaring weakness, ranking last in the league, which could prove costly in critical matchups. It will be intriguing to see if they can topple current AFC leaders Kansas City and Buffalo, but for now, Baltimore remains among the conference's top contenders.

VERDICT: Contenders

Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)

Even with Justin Herbert's immense talent, this season was expected to be a retooling year and an adjustment period under head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers faced significant losses on offense, including Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. However, Harbaugh has successfully translated his coaching success from Michigan to Los Angeles, guiding the Chargers toward a potential playoff berth.

The extent of their postseason success remains uncertain. The team lacks the star power of other top contenders and has struggled against playoff-caliber opponents, suffering defeats to the Steelers, Ravens, and Chiefs.

VERDICT: Pretenders

Denver Broncos (8-5)

I must admit I was very wrong about how I thought the Broncos' season would pan out. Sean Payton has transformed Bo Nix into a Rookie of the Year contender and has Denver in a playoff spot. A win against Indianapolis this coming week will nearly secure a playoff appearance, but this Broncos team might be a bit early to the parade.

I’m just not sold on the rookie quarterback yet, and I don’t think he’ll be able to overcome the powerhouses of the AFC. I'll let Nix and Payton prove me wrong again, but this team likely maxes out as a first-round exit.

VERDICT: Pretenders

Ryan Nelke can be reached at ryan.nelke@student.shu.edu. 

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