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4 first round potential upsets in the NCAA Tournament

Date: March 19, 2021

By: Justin Nicosia

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Kirby Smart/USA TODAY Sports

Every year, we are blessed with insane Cinderella runs in March Madness. Each and every one of them start in the first round with a crazy upset. Here are five of the most likely upsets in the first round of this year’s tournament.

 

4. (12) Georgetown over (5) Colorado. Saturday, 12:15 p.m. on CBS

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Georgetown Athletics

Georgetown might be the hottest team in the team right now, coming off of a four-game winning streak, and a Big East tournament victory. Their 13-12 record is deceiving, as the Hoyas have the potential to beat elite opposition; they have three total wins against either Creighton or Villanova. With four players averaging double digits, scoring comes from a variety of places. The duo of Qudus Wahab and Jamorko Pickett make for one of the best rebounding teams in the tournament, which can be crucial against a Colorado team who has struggled to shoot the ball recently (they have shot only 42.8% in their last three outings, with their competition in two of those games being against underwhelming defenses).

 

Colorado ended the season ranked 23rd in the AP poll, but they have shown their vulnerabilities throughout the season, especially recently. They lost to Oregon State, lost once to PAC-12 bottom feeder Cal, and nearly blew a 13-point lead with nine minutes left to lose another one in the PAC-12 tournament. They also lost to other bottom-half conference teams in the likes of Washington and Utah. Their best win is against USC (they did it twice), but they lack many quality wins outside of that, especially recently.

 

Georgetown has been shooting the ball very well recently and has the size to outrebound Colorado when they miss. Colorado has not been shooting well recently and will give up a lot of possessions to Georgetown due to bad shots. Georgetown will outsize Colorado, outshoot Colorado, and force Colorado to play a lot quicker than they usually do, getting them out of their comfort zone and to force up worse shots. Georgetown has a good shot to win here and keep this beautiful run dedicated to John Thompson alive.

 

3. (12) Oregon State over (5) Tennessee. Friday, 4:30 p.m. on TNT

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The Oregonian/Oregon Live

Oregon State did the unthinkable last week when they defeated UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado en route to a PAC-12 Championship, and auto-bid in this year’s tournament. They have won seven of nine and played phenomenal defense in that stretch, allowing just 65.9 points-per-game in that stretch. Their challengers will be the Tennessee Volunteers, who also have a fantastic defense.

 

However, Tennessee’s offense is amongst the most inconsistent in the entire country. They shoot just 44.3% from the field and 33.7% from three and will struggle against one of the hottest defenses in the country. The Beavers allow just 31.4% of their opponent’s perimeter shots to fall and will be a brutal matchup for the Vols. Tennessee has a good defense themselves, especially inside the paint, but they rank 73rd in the country in defensive three-point percentage (31.8%). Oregon State has shot the ball very well recently, hitting 41% of their threes this March. I believe Oregon State can keep up this success from behind the arc against a defense that defends the three worse than themselves, especially since they are very selective shooting the ball (they only shoot 19.9 threes-per-game, 238th in the country).

 

Defensively, they’ve had very much success over the past month, and I don’t trust Tennessee to find their stroke when they have struggled to do so for much of the year.

 

2. (12) Winthrop over (5) Villanova. Friday, 9:57 p.m. on TNT

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Winthrop University

I discussed this game in my previous article about five must watch games this weekend, but I felt like I had to touch upon it again. This Villanova team is far different from teams of Villanova past. Even when at full strength, the Wildcats this year are not as efficient from behind the arc as usual; this year they recorded their second worst three-point shooting percentage in the last seven seasons. Now they’re without the facilitator of their offense, point guard Collin Gillespie.

 

In the two games without him, Villanova looked awful, losing to two underwhelming opponents in Providence and Georgetown. Villanova’s other guard Justin Moore has also struggled with a sprained ankle. Although he’ll suit up on Friday, chances are he is not 100%, giving a further blow to a struggling Villanova team that has lost three of their last four. Winthrop enters with only one loss, and they are perhaps the deepest team in the entire field.  Of the 11 players that regularly get in the rotation, four average double digits.

 

Although Villanova has similar depth with four players also averaging double digits, two of them are either out or nursing an injury. Winthrop is a team that likes to push the pace and force teams to keep up with then. This is a style of play Villanova is not used to, and not being at full strength will make it harder to keep up. Although Villanova typically dictates the tempo of games, this is a game that feels like they won’t be able to. Winthrop’s depth allows them to keep the intensity moving even as Villanova heads to the bench, and Villanova’s injury further thins that bench, and removing opportunities for scoring that would otherwise be there with Gillespie. I think Winthrop will jump out to a first-half lead and force Villanova to play catch-up, which is a game they hate playing and aren’t equipped to play either.

 

1. (11) Drake over (6) USC. Saturday, 4:30 p.m. on TNT

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NCAA.com

It wasn’t pretty, but the Drake Bulldogs were able to continue their miracle season Thursday by defeating Wichita State 53-52. Drake went on two key runs towards the end of each half and did so by playing the best defense they have all season. The offense, which usually ranks amongst the most efficient in the country didn’t look great on the interior but shot the ball well from three (36.8%). A large part of Drake’s success in the first 20 games when they went 19-1 was the play of senior forward Shanquan Hemphill. Hemphill is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder but went down with a broken foot in February. He returned to the floor on Thursday, coming off the bench, but he only totaled 10 minutes. Hemphill had very little practice prior to his return Thursday, contributing to his low minute total, but I see him getting a lot more minutes this weekend against USC. USC comes in led by NBA lottery pick Evan Mobley, who is by far the best player on the court.

 

However, once you get away from him, there isn’t much to work with. Tahj Eaddy is the only other player to average double digits, and USC doesn’t get much help from their bench. Drake is a much deeper team, and teams with depth tend to play better in the tournament. If they can keep up the same intensity on defense that forced Wichita State to shoot 33.9% from the field and 16.7% from three, it will be a similar story.

 

Wichita State is a team that also lacks bench depth and lacks production from anybody other than Tyson Ettiene and Alterique Gilbert. History tends to repeat itself, and I think Drake can replicate their defensive success from Thursday on Saturday while continuing to ride the momentum that took them to their first NCAA appearance in 13 years and their first victory in 50.

Justin Nicosia can be reached at justin.nicosia@student.shu.edu.

Posted in: Men's Basketball, Sports

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