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Justin Nicosia's Top 25 in CBB

Date: November 14, 2022

By: Justin Nicosia

This article was written on Nov. 6, 2022

UCLA player on the court.

UCLA Athletics

The college basketball season begins Monday, so there’s no better time to rank the nation’s top teams heading into the season.

Ultimately, these rankings won’t matter two months from now when teams have played 15-20 games, but it’s fun to preview what the top of the sport could look like come March.

I’ll list the preseason KenPom rankings next to each team. KenPom is a computer metric which ranks teams based off of per-possession efficiency, adjusting for their opponents. The preseason rankings are largely based off of previous efficiency numbers of players on any team’s current rosters and attempt to remove any emotional bias that humans would have.

Note: All freshman class rankings are via 247sports.

Note: This article was written prior to Monday’s season tip-off

 

  1. North Carolina Tar Heels (Last Year: 29-10, 15-5 ACC)

Preseason KenPom: 9

Last year’s national championship runners-up enter the 2023 season with high expectations. They bring back every rotational player – minus Brady Manek and Dawson Garcia – but if Northwestern transfer Pete Nance can be a fraction of the player that Manek was, the Tar Heels should be just fine.

With three seniors and two juniors in their starting lineup, North Carolina will be one of the most experienced teams in the country.

Leaky Black is arguably the best defensive guard in the country. Armando Bacot could turn 2022’s All-ACC First Team season into a Player of the Year season. Caleb Love, who made the East Regional all-tournament team teams up with RJ Davis in what could be the ACC’s most prolific backcourt.

 

  1. Houston Cougars (Last Year: 32-6, 15-3 American)

Preseason KenPom: 7

Last season, the Cougars dealt with injuries to their two best players – Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark – which sidelined them both for over 20 games, and still made it to the Elite Eight.

With the two returning alongside a talented Jamal Shead, and the nation’s 12th-ranked freshman, Jarace Walker, Houston should have no problem winning the AAC, and could certainly make a deep run into March.

 

  1. Kentucky Wildcats (Last Year: 26-8, 14-4 SEC)

Preseason KenPom: 1

In this day and age, it is quite uncommon for teams to return the reigning National Player of the Year. Oscar Tshiebwe becomes the first player to do so since Tyler Hansbrough won the award in 2008.

The Wildcats also bring back Jacob Toppin and 2022 SEC assist leader Sahvir Wheeler, as well as an elite recruiting class.

Tshiebwe may miss the first few games of the season, and Wheeler may be out a bit longer than that, but few teams are better than a full-strength Kentucky team.

 

  1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (Last Year: 28-4, 13-1 WCC)

Preseason KenPom: 3

While the loss of Chet Holmgren obviously hurts Gonzaga, the retainment of Drew Timme has a positive impact of nearly the same magnitude. Gonzaga retains three of last year’s starters but replace Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard with last year’s sixth-man Nolan Hickman and Chattanooga sharpshooting transfer Malachi Smith.

The Bulldogs are a bit undersized, with 6-foot-7 Julian Strawther as the second-tallest starter behind the 6-foot-10 Timme, and they’ll be battle tested right away. They’ll play Texas, Kentucky, and Baylor before they play ten games, and they could also play Duke, Florida, and Purdue in that timeframe.

Look for Gonzaga’s roster continuity, as well as the elite coaching of Mark Few to play a big factor in Gonzaga’s success this year.

 

  1. Duke Blue Devils (Last Year: 32-7, 16-4 ACC)

Preseason KenPom: 15

The Jon Scheyer era is now here. And what better way to start it than with arguably the greatest recruiting class of all-time?

The Blue Devils got Dereck Lively (the nation’s top-ranked recruit), Dariq Whitehead (the nation’s second-ranked recruit), AND Kyle Filipowski (the nation’s fourth-ranked recruit). In addition, they got two more top-30 recruits in Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor, as well as another four-star.

Duke’s incoming recruiting class knew last year would be Coach K’s last in Durham, and they all still came to play for Scheyer.

While I acknowledge there could be some growing pains with a new coach and a really young roster, the talent here is just too plentiful, and Duke will give any team a problem on any given night.

 

  1. UCLA Bruins (Last Year: 27-8, 15-5 Pac-12)

Preseason KenPom: 11

The Bruins were America’s sweethearts two years ago when they went from the First Four to the Final Four. Now, for the second year in a row, they find themselves with a target on their backs for any team looking to get a signature win.

Tyger Campbell, Jaime Jaquez, and Jaylen Clark all return while Amari Bailey (the nation’s ninth-ranked prospect) and Adem Bona (the nation’s 16th-ranked prospect) replace Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard in the starting lineup.

 

  1. Arkansas Razorbacks (Last Year: 28-9, 13-5 SEC)

Preseason KenPom: 14

In his three seasons as Arkansas’ men’s basketball coach, Eric Musselman has cemented himself as one of the premier coaches in college basketball. While he loses a lot from last year’s team – most notably JD Notae and Jaylin Williams, he brings in a lot of key transfers and an elite recruiting class.

Remember that Duke class I told you about a minute ago, and how they were missing the third-ranked recruit in the class? That recruit would be Arkansas Razorback, Nick Smith. He is one of three five-stars for the Razorbacks, who also bring in three four-stars.

They also get the Mitchell brothers from Rhode Island, who were arguably their best players for the past couple of years, as well as Missouri transfer Trevon Brazille, Arizona State transfer Jalen Graham, and Wichita State transfer Ricky Council IV.

If this team can maintain chemistry – which is easier said than done when there are so many players with superstar potential – they can beat anybody in the nation.

 

  1. Texas Longhorns (Last Year: 22-12, 10-8 Big 12)

Preseason KenPom: 2

Last season, the Longhorns were held in high regards for playing the transfer portal phenomenally. It took them a while to get things going, but at the end of the season, Texas remained one of the nation’s elite teams.

Now, they bring most of those guys back – most notably Christian Bishop and Marcus Carr, but they also bring in Tyrese Hunter, who was the heart and soul of last year’s Iowa State team, both offensively and defensively.

With one of the most experienced rosters in college basketball, look for Chris Beard’s squad to make a deep postseason run.

 

  1. Baylor Bears (Last Year: 27-7, 14-4 Big 12)

Preseason KenPom: 6

Baylor is turning into a college basketball dynasty under Scott Drew. Had COVID not cancelled the 2020 Tournament, last year would have been Baylor’s third consecutive 1-seed.

LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler may be the best backcourt combo in the entire country, and West Virginia transfer Jalen Bridges could help them out in the frontcourt.

My concern with the Bears is depth – last year, Cryer and center Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua missed a combined 24 games down the stretch, which led to Baylor’s early exit in the NCAA Tournament. Many of those issues remain with the team this year, and Tchamwa Tchatchoua will start the season hurt.

This team, on paper, is one of the most talented in the nation, but they need to avoid those issues that plagued them late last year.

 

  1. Indiana Hoosiers (Last Year: 21-14, 9-11 Big Ten)

Preseason KenPom: 12

The Hoosiers get hyped on the sidelines.

University of Indiana Athletics

Indiana has as close to a big three as you can get in college basketball with Xavier Johnson, Race Thompson, and Preseason Big Ten Player of the Year Trayce Jackson-Davis. Those three, along with Miller Kopp, are all seniors and could be a great influence on freshman guard, and likely starter, Jalen Hood-Schifino.

The Hoosiers may struggle to shoot the three-ball; they did last season, and sometimes brought their offense to a standstill, but experience and star power should win out for the Hoosiers in 2022.

 

  1. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Last Year: 26-11, 14-6 ACC)

Preseason KenPom: 42

I’m not crazy, trust me. I know KenPom has Miami ranked outside of their top 40, and the AP Poll has them ranked 28th (if you count those receiving votes) but hear me out.

This Miami team was phenomenal last season, beating teams like Duke, UNC, and Virginia Tech in the regular season, before toppling USC, Auburn, and Iowa State on their way to the first Elite Eight in school history.

While the losses of Kam McGusty and Charlie Moore can’t be understated, the addition of Nijel Pack, an All-American caliber player, immediately elevates any team into the national conversation.

Add Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, and a pair of 4-stars to that team, and you have a team with some serious Final Four aspirations.

 

  1. Kansas Jayhawks (Last Year: 34-6, 14-4 Big 12)

Preseason KenPom: 8

The reigning national champions will begin their season without head coach Bill Self and assistant head coach Kurtis Townsend as the team suspended them for four games after recruiting violations in 2017. They will also miss a crucial matchup against Duke, an absence which may decide the game.

But putting all that aside, Kansas brings back two starters in Dajuan Harris and Jalen Wilson, add Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar, and bring in the fourth-ranked recruiting class in the country.

Will this team be as good as last year’s national championship squad, without Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, Remy Martin, and David McCormack? It would be foolish to think so, but it would be equally as foolish to bet against the Jayhawks making a run at the Big 12 title and potentially another national title in March.

 

  1. UConn Huskies (Last Year: 23-10, 13-6 Big East)

Preseason KenPom: 27

While UConn had a disappointing ending to last season – they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to New Mexico State – they still had an impressive season, finishing in the top 25 of almost every computer metric.

They bring back last year’s Big East Player of the Year, Andre Jackson, and potential 2023 NBA draftee Jordan Hawkins. Replacing RJ Cole and Tyrese Martin isn’t easy, but those three as well as East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton and four-star recruit Alex Kraban should allow the Huskies to pick up right where they left off.

 

  1. Tennessee Volunteers (Last Year: 27-8, 14-4 SEC)

Preseason KenPom: 4

Last year, the Volunteers earned a 3-seed, although most in the college basketball world thought they deserved a 2-seed.

Santiago Vescovi is a trendy SEC Player of the Year pick, and Zakai Ziegler and Josiah Jordan-James round out an interesting backcourt. They’re a bit undersized with their tallest starter listed at 6-foot-8, which could be a problem in the super-physical SEC.

 

  1. Arizona Wildcats (Last Year: 33-4, 18-2 Pac-12)

Preseason KenPom: 10

In his first year at Arizona, Tommy Lloyd showed the world that he is already an elite head coach. The Wildcats entered last year as a borderline tournament team and Lloyd took them to a 1-seed.

The departures of Benn Mathurin, Christian Koloko, and Dalen Terry may prevent this team from achieving that again, but with Kerr Kriisa, Pelle Larson, Azoulas Tubelis, and Texas transfer Courtney Ramey, the Wildcats should compete for a Pac-12 title.

 

  1. San Diego State Aztecs (Last Year: 23-9, 13-4 Mountain West)

Preseason KenPom: 18

In his first five years at San Diego State, Brian Dutcher has built one of the best defensive programs in the country, finishing on average, 28th in KenPom defensive efficiency. If you take out the outlier 2019 season when they finished 78th, their average finish moves to 16th.

Not only can this year’s team play defense – they were 2nd last year, and return 72% of their minutes – but they can also shoot the three ball. Matt Bradley, Adam Selko, and transfers Darrion Trammell and Micah Parrish can do so at a solid clip.

SDSU will be tested early – they’ll play BYU, Stanford, Ohio State, and Saint Mary’s before Dec. 10. They’re also competing in the Maui Invitational Tournament over Thanksgiving and could potentially play Arizona, Arkansas, and Creighton as well.

 

  1. Villanova Wildcats (Last Year: 30-8, 16-4 Big East)

Preseason KenPom: 19

Villanova’s success this season hinges on two things: how will Kyle Neptune do as the head coach of Villanova after bringing Fordham to competency last year? And how soon will 11th-ranked prospect Cam Whitmore (who recently got thumb surgery) return?

Whitmore isn’t expected to be out long-term, but if he misses much of the non-conference slate, which could include games against UNC, Oregon, and Alabama.

The Wildcats still have a good team – Brandon Slater, Caleb Daniels, and Eric Dixon are good pieces, and we’ll learn more about this team early on.

 

  1. TCU Horned Frogs (Last Year: 21-13, 8-19 Big 12)

Preseason KenPom: 16

TCU is the popular Final Four pick this year, and for good reason. They return everybody from last year’s NCAA Tournament team that took Arizona to overtime – and would have won to advance to the Sweet 16 – if it weren’t for a phantom foul.

Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin will be their two best players, as they were in the Tournament. TCU could have a top 10 defense in the country.

Their only concern, however, comes offensively; the only Horned Frog to have shot better than 30% from three last year, Chuck O’Bannon, shot 33.4%.

 

  1. Florida Gators (Last Year: 20-14, 9-9 SEC)

Preseason KenPom: 35

Florida has one of the best players in the SEC in Colin Castelton, as well as a trio of impactful transfers: St. Bonaventure’s Kyle Lofton, Belmont’s Will Richard, and LSU’s Alex Fudge.

The roster is filled with 3-and-D guys, and if they live up to their potential, the sky’s the limit. The only question is if they can get there.

 

  1. Michigan Wolverines (Last Year: 19-15, 11-9 Big Ten)

Preseason KenPom: 26

Juwan Howard looks to lead Michigan to a deep run into March.

Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY Sports

Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson was a unanimous selection to the preseason Big Ten team. Terrance Williams also returns, and Princeton transfer Jaelin Llewellyn should make an immediate impact.

The problem with Michigan is they’re going to be super reliant on freshmen; Jett Howard, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Dug McDaniel will all play rotational minutes.

While they’re all surely talented enough – they’re four-star recruits after all – none of them have the guaranteed star power that some other top recruits are expected to have.

 

  1. Dayton Flyers (Last Year: 24-11, 14-4 A-10)

Preseason KenPom: 24

Dayton emerges as the favorites in the A-10. The Flyers return five starters and 94% of last season’s minutes from a team that won 24 games and was widely regarded as one of the Big Dance’s biggest snubs.

Malachi Smith was one of the nation’s best returning freshmen from a year ago. Smith, Kobe Elvis, R.J. Blankey, and Toumani Camara can all shoot the three-ball. If they can fix the turnover mistakes that had them ranked 232nd in turnover rate last season, the Flyers could have a top 10 offense in the country.

 

  1. Oregon Ducks (Last Year: 20-15, 11-9 Pac-12)

Preseason KenPom: 29

Dana Altman is the longest-tenured coach in the Pac-12 and has established himself as arguably the best in the conference. His Ducks will have one of the biggest lineups in college basketball, headlined by 7th-ranked prospect, center Kel’el Ware, who should start day-one.

The rest of the starting lineup is composed of seniors, all except South Carolina transfer Jermaine Couisnard, that played in Eugene last year. Will Richardson should take a leap and earn himself all Pac-12 honors, and Dana Altman should take the Ducks back to the NCAA Tournament.

 

  1. Creighton Bluejays (Last Year: 23-12, 12-7 Big East)

Preseason KenPom: 23

Before you spam my e-mail and Twitter mentions, let me explain why I have Creighton ranked 23rd when the AP Poll has them ranked ninth and no other pundit has them lower than 15th. I’m just simply not convinced by this Creighton team.

The Blue Jays lost Ryan Hawkins – their top rebounder and scorer from last season – and Alex O’Connell, who had 11.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game last year. They also ranked outside the top 50 for almost the entire season in KenPom and the NET, the two most highly regarded computer metrics in the sport. They never appeared in the AP Top 25.

They bring in South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman, but I seriously question his ability to shoot the ball from deep at the 46.9% clip in the defense-optional Summit League versus in the Big East.

We already saw his efficiency numbers drastically drop off against good opponents last season – just look at his numbers against power conference schools. Granted it’s a small sample size, but in four games, he’s shot an abysmal 19/54 (35.2%) from the field and 8/26 (30.8%) from three.

Yes, they bring back Ryan Kalkbrenner, who could be this season’s Big East Player of the Year. Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander are good as well, but Creighton doesn’t have a great recruiting class, and they may have to rely on some of those freshmen because they don’t have much depth.

I just can’t give a team that is largely unchanged (aside from two huge departures) from a middle-of-the-road team a ranking that implies they’re bona fide Final Four contenders like the rest of the media wants you to think. They have to prove it to me first.

 

  1.  Auburn Tigers (Last Year: 28-6, 15-3 SEC)

Preseason KenPom: 13

Whether you want to credit it to Bruce Pearl or Bryan Harsin, Auburn is now known as a basketball school. It will be hard for them to replace Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler from last year’s team, but their returning players have all shown flashes of greatness.

While inconsistent, Wendell Green, Allen Flanigan, and K.D. Johnson have all shown the potential to go for 20 points on any given night. They also bring in a double-double machine in Morehead State transfer Johni Broome, and a pair of top-40 prospects in Yohan Traore and Chance Westry. We’ll see what they can all do together.

 

  1.  St. Louis Billikens (Last Year: 23-12, 12-6 A-10)

Preseason KenPom: 39

Last season’s Division-I assist leader, Yuli Collins, returns to St. Louis after averaging 11.1 points and 7.9 assists per game. Collins joins sophomore sharpshooter Gibson Jimerson and Missouri transfer Javon Pickett to form the best backcourt outside of the Power Six (plus Gonzaga).

If the Billikens can improve on their rebounding from last season and limit its turnovers, they’ll give Dayton a run for their money in the Atlantic 10.

 

JUST MISSED: Virginia Tech, Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Virginia, Rutgers, Michigan St.

BREAKDOWN BY CONFERENCE: SEC (5), Big 12 (4), ACC (3), Big East (3), Pac-12 (3), A-10 (2), Big Ten (2) American (1), Mountain West (1), WCC (1)

Justin Nicosia can be reached at justin.nicosia@student.shu.edu.

Posted in: Sports, Men's Basketball

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