Seton Hall
Justin Nicosia's 2021 Final Four picks
Date: March 20, 2021By: Justin Nicosia
@FinalFour via Twitter
Just over 365 days ago, we were preparing for the Big East Tournament and deliberating amongst friends about whether Seton Hall were a three-seed or a four-seed. Unfortunately, neither the Big East Tournament nor the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament happened.
Flash forward to now, and although our beloved Pirates did not get a chance to go dancing, but actually seeing a bracket and field of 68 set up had me ready to run through a brick wall. I immediately started to look through and make multiple brackets. These are my favorite picks for the Final Four.
West Region: No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
James Snook/USA TODAY Sports
This should come as no surprise. The best team in the entire tournament, the Gonzaga Bulldogs started the season ranked as the best team in the country, and they haven’t looked back since. Gonzaga played a tough non-conference schedule, facing the likes of Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Virginia and Iowa, in addition to having a game against Baylor canceled due to COVID issues in the Baylor program.
They enter the tournament at a phenomenal 26-0, only the 28th team to finish the regular season undefeated. 25 of their 26 victories have been by double digits, with West Virginia being the only team to be within 10 (they lost 87-82). Their 23 consecutive double-digit victories just recently broke 1971-72 UCLA’s previous record of 21. That UCLA team went on to become undefeated national champions.
The Bulldogs have four players that average double digits: Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs, and Joel Ayayi. As a team, they total 92.1 points per game, the most for any team since VMI in 2006-07. Their stifling defense forces turnovers often, and their 18th in the nation in steals-per-game (8.3).
As the top seed in the entire tournament, Gonzaga gets a favorable draw. Their second-round matchup would be between either Oklahoma or Missouri, two inconsistent teams who have been struggling as of late. If they can beat them, their most likely Sweet 16 opponents would be Creighton or Virginia. Creighton’s reliance on the three-point ball may provide a high-scoring affair and keep Gonzaga on their toes, but if they draw Virginia, it could very well be a repeat of their Dec. 26 matchup when Gonzaga won 98-75.
The best team in this region not named Gonzaga is Iowa, but that was a game Gonzaga played and won 99-88 in December, and they were in control for most of the game. Iowa has also had multiple players struggle with injury concerns, and sixth man Jack Nunge recently tore his meniscus, ending his season. If these two face off in the Elite Eight, Gonzaga could run away with it quickly.
East Region: No. 7 UConn Huskies
UConn Athletics
I know, this sounds crazy. But this UConn team feels eerily similar to UConn teams of the past. In 2014, UConn entered as a defensive-minded seven-seed with one main offensive focus, Shabazz Napier. This year, UConn is also a defensive-minded 7-seed, with one main focus on offense: James Bouknight. In his eight games since returning from an elbow injury, he led UConn to a 6-2 record with their only losses being against Villanova and Creighton
The Huskies get a favorable first round tilt against a Maryland team that struggles offensively and was one of the last at-large bids in the tournament as a 10-seed. In the second round, UConn would likely face second-seeded Alabama. Alabama has only seen one defense quite as strong as UConn’s, which came from the Tennessee Volunteers. In their two matchups this season, the Vols held Alabama to 71 and 73 points-per-game, noticeably below their season average of 79.6.
Alabama’s offense is predicated on shooting the 3 as often as any team in the country, and if they go cold from behind the arc, they’ll struggle to stay in the game. Having a perimeter defense as good as UConn’s will help this.
My bracket’s Sweet Sixteen actually sees a 2014 Elite Eight rematch between UConn and Michigan State, in which I think UConn will physically outmatch MSU and things could get ugly quickly. Even if UConn faces one of the more talented teams in the likes of Texas or BYU, I think UConn’s size gives them an edge.
Their most likely Elite Eight opponents would be Florida State or Michigan. Florida State would have a real chance to beat Michigan as the Wolverines haven’t been playing up to form recently and enter without star forward Isaiah Livers. If UConn plays Michigan, they will be well equipped to capitalize on that injury. If they play Florida State, they will face a team who has one of the best interior defenses in the country. The problem is, they lack the length to defend the perimeter as well. UConn has three players in addition to Bouknight who can be lethal behind the arc (A.J. Cole, Isaiah Whaley, and Tyler Polley), and potentially deliver them to a Final Four.
South Region: No. 1 Baylor Bears
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Prior to their extended COVID pause in February, the Bears looked like the co-best team in the country. I would have gone as far to say they were better than Gonzaga. After they returned to actions, they stumbled; a near-loss to Big 12 bottom feeder Iowa State, and losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State have led many to question their co-favorite status. However, Baylor has one the best three-point shooting teams in the country, led by three of the best guards in the nation (MaCio Teague, Jared Butler, and Davion Mitchell).
Their second-round matchup would come between a Wisconsin team that has been ranked quite generously by the polls all year. Baylor would most likely meet Villanova or Purdue in the Sweet 16. Villanova’s offense has been very exploitable since Collin Gillespie went down to injury. As for Purdue, they have one of the tallest teams in the country. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, if they were to face Baylor, this would be a matchup nightmare. Purdue’s size would make it hard to keep up with the elite trio of Baylor’s guards, and just as hard to defend the three-point arc from the best outside shooting team in the country.
My bracket has Arkansas squaring up with Baylor in the Elite Eight, and this would be a high scoring game with a lot of threes flying. But I give Baylor the edge here because this game would become a shooting contest, and nobody can outshoot the Baylor Bears this year. I could also see Ohio State in this spot, and although the Buckeyes have played well all year, with a lot of quality wins, they have struggled against the best of the best, which Baylor certainly qualifies as.
Midwest Region- No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Athletics
It was a surprise to hear Oklahoma State’s name called as low as the four-line on Sunday. They will be playing Oregon State, who is on a hot streak right now, but Cade Cunningham is too unguardable even for the hottest of teams in March Madness. The Sweet 16 could see Oklahoma State play Illinois or Loyola-Chicago. My bracket has Loyola-Chicago beat Illinois on the back of their stifling defense. I think Loyola can beat Illinois because Illinois doesn’t get much production outside of Dosunmo and Cockburn. If Loyola can focus on the two of them, Illinois will struggle to score and get help from the rest of the starting lineup, and especially the bench.
Oklahoma State, however, doesn’t have this problem; without Cunningham and Isaac Likekele (their two-top minute-getters), Oklahoma State still was able to defeat eighth-ranked West Virginia 85-80. Speaking of West Virginia, I see these two facing off in an Elite Eight matchup to get into the Final Four. Oklahoma State was able to take two of three games from the Mountaineers this year, including their last two meetings, and one game without two of their top players. Oklahoma State has been red-hot and is a much different team than when they blew a 19-point lead against West Virginia to lose their Jan. 4 affair that the Cowboys were dominating the entire game.
Justin Nicosia can be reached at justin.nicosia@student.shu.edu.
Posted in: Men's Basketball, Sports
