Fantasy Baseball's Biggest Surprises and Disappointments

Date: July 20, 2017

By Jose Feliciano

We are a few games past the All Star game as the second half of the MLB is now underway. This season has seen many surprises, such as the Brewers rise to first place in what was supposed to be a stacked NL Central led by the reigning World Series Champion Chicago Cubs and always-competitive St. Louis Cardinals. Instead, those teams have disappointed, as the Cubs are a mere two games over .500 and the Cardinals being one game under .500. Fantasy baseball has also seen its share of surprises and disappointments. Here are some of the breakouts and disappointments in fantasy baseball this season. Note that the breakouts are players who burst onto the scene this year and were not established players until this season and that the players with down seasons are the opposite, established stars who have flopped this season.

* All stats are up to date as of July 19, 2017

** All statistics were found on www.baseball-reference.com

 

Breakout: Aaron Judge (97.4% Owned ESPN)

Aaron Judge has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate this season for the Yankees. He currently leads the American League in home runs, is third in RBIs and sixth in batting average. Judge won the Home Run Derby last week but has suffered through his first slump this year during his first few games after the break but should receive a boost with the recent acquisition of slugging third baseman Todd Frazier. He is still a top Outfielder option in any format and this is coming after his first cup of coffee in the bigs where he struck out 42 out of 95 at-bats.

 

Down Season: Carlos Gonzalez (70.2% Owned ESPN)

When I snagged Carlos Gonzalez in the seventh round, I thought I had an absolute steal, as he hit .298 and clubbed 25 Home Runs in the hitter friendly confines of Coors Field last season. Car-Go looks nothing like that in 2017 and is easily having the worst season of his career. Gonzalez had a similar season in 2014 as he hit .238 and hit 11 home runs, however he only played 70 games and was injured throughout the season. He just came off a short DL stint due to a strained right shoulder, which did not help his already minimal value. Despite playing half his games in Coors Field, he has a mere six home runs this season. While he is normally a second half hitter, his performance in the first half this season makes it hard to believe he will come back strong during the second half of the season.

 

Breakout: Cody Bellinger (94.1% Owned ESPN)

April 25, 2017. Cody Bellinger played his first major league game that day. He is currently second in the National League in home runs with 26. His rookie season is reminiscent of Joc Pederson's in 2015, as they both went on home run tears in the first half of the season. Pederson's stats plummeted in the second half and while he is playing solid baseball this season, he has not been as good as his 2015 first half. They both also performed in the Home Run Derby in their rookie year. They both have huge swings and strike out frequently but time will tell if Bellinger suffers the same fate as Pederson, but as of right now, he is the hottest rookie in the National League and a top fantasy option at first base and the outfield.

 

Down Season: Carlos Santana (85% Owned ESPN)

Santana was key to the Cleveland Indians' World Series run last season as he smacked 34 home runs and worked 99 walks, all while being used just about everywhere in Cleveland's lineup, mainly the leadoff spot. He and Edwin Encarnacion, the top power hitters on Cleveland, started off the season ice cold but Encarnacion has heated up these past two months and is back to his normal form. The same cannot be said for Santana, who is hitting .235 and has an on-base percentage of .336. The power has not been their either as he has only hit ten homers this season. Nothing has gone right for Santana this season, and his fantasy owners are feeling it.

 

Breakout: Robbie Ray (92.8% Owned ESPN)

Robbie Ray has quietly been an absolute monster season for the Diamondbacks, who have been another breakout team this season as they currently have the first wild card spot in the National League. Ray racked up 218 strikeouts last season but was 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA which is what hurt his fantasy value last year. The 218 K's however were encouraging enough for people to see him as a potential breakout candidate this season and he has delivered with an 9-4 record with a shiny 2.97 ERA and 145 K's this season, good for third in the Nation League. Ray's dominance earned him a spot on the National League All-Star team this season as he looks to continue his dominance in the second half.

 

Down Season: Johnny Cueto (90.6% Owned ESPN)

Not all of Cueto's fantasy value decline is on him, as a lack of run support from his offense has led him to lose starts that he probably should have won. However, Cueto has not pitched up to par with his normal career numbers as he has an unsightly 4.59 ERA and a 6-7 record on a Giants team that lost Madison Bumgarner in April and only just got him back. The home run ball has been the biggest problem for Cueto as he has already given up 19 of them, already 4 more than he gave up all of last year. This had led to Cueto being lit up in some games. Cueto recently landed on the disabled list with a blister, which only hurts his value. After a dominant season last year, Cueto was expected to put up strong numbers for the Giants and the fantasy owners who drafted him, but he has not pitched like his usual dominant self.

Breakout: Marcell Ozuna (95.4 Owned ESPN)

Marcell Ozuna was exiled to AAA only two years ago. After a solid, but not amazing all-star season last year where he hit .266 with 23 home runs and 76 RBIs, Ozuna has really stepped up this season. He has already matched his home run total last year as he now has 23 this season. He started in the all-star game last year as an injury replacement and started this year's game via the fan vote, and it is well deserved. Ozuna has been excellent and has been a top option in the outfield in any fantasy league. He is hitting .315 and is slugging .555 while also driving in 70. Ozuna is mashing right now and has been a pleasant surprise for everyone, except opposing pitchers.

 

Down Year: Miguel Cabrera (98.8% Owned ESPN)

A lock to be a Hall of Famer, Cabrera has been arguably the best hitter in the past decade. This season is by far the worst of his career. He is hitting .265 with only 12 home runs and 45 RBIs this season, which is nowhere near the production expected from a guy who was a borderline first-rounder in fantasy drafts this year. Age may have caught up with Cabrera as he is in his age 34 season. Injuries have not helped him either as he has already spent some time on the DL this season. Cabrera may just bounce back in the second half but it will be hard to make up for his rough first half.

 

Breakout: Justin Smoak (84.1% Owned ESPN)

Smoak was a top prospect before he first came up but never hit as well as he expected. He has never hit over .240 in his career and his career is high in home runs was 20. Now he is an All-Star who is hitting .292 with 24 home runs, all thanks to a change in his swing that has him trying to elevate the ball more in the air, similar to his teammate Josh Donaldson. It has worked wonders for him as he has been a suitable replacement for first basemen disappointments like the aforementioned Cabrera and Santana. You can safely assume he was not on any draft boards prior to this season, but you can bet owners wish he was.

 

Down Year: Manny Machado (99.2% Owned ESPN)

Machado joins the list of huge stars flopping this season as the slugger has only hit .239 and is getting by with a .307 on-base percentage. After slamming 37 home runs last year, his value was sky high as he was eligible at Third Base and Shortstop. Machado is a guy who was drafted in the first round in all of my leagues and for good reason but has lived up to expectations this year. While he has hit 18 home runs, the lack of base hits really hurts his value.

 

Breakout: Jimmy Nelson (84.4% Owned ESPN)

Jimmy Nelson was an average starter for the Brewers from 2015-2016. This year he has been their ace and has helped them claim first place in the NL Central, for now. While you may not take the Brewers seriously, you should take Nelson seriously. He is 8-4 with 127 strikeouts and a 3.27 ERA and has been very impressive lately. In his last six starts, he has racked up 52 K's in only 36.2 innings so you know his ability to strikeout guys are his biggest strength. Nelson is not an ace on most MLB teams but he would be a solid option on any team.

 

Down Year: The Entire Cubs Rotation

(ESPN: Lester 97.6%, Arrieta 98.1%, Lackey 52.2%, Hendricks 81.2%, Quintana 93.2%)

I could not ignore how bad the rotation has been so they are all included here. Jon Lester just had a start where he surrendered 10 runs (4 earned) against the Pirates, although his first start after the break was a strong outing. His ERA sits at 4.07, much higher than last year's 2.44 ERA. Jake Arrieta, the 2015 CY Young award winner in the NL, has admitted his workload over the past two years is getting to him and it shows in his results on the mound this season. His velocity is down and while he has had strong starts this season, he has had ones where he is thrashed, so it has been a mixed bag. His ERA sits at 4.17. Kyle Hendricks is on the DL but his season looks nothing like last year's. I was never a believer in Hendricks' monster 2016 where he was 16-8 with a league leading 2.13 ERA and it seems so far I was right. He was the luckiest pitcher in the league last season as he did play behind a top three defense but still, a lot more was expected from him this year. Maybe it is the tendinitis in his right hand that is causing his pitching troubles, but it has not been pretty for him this year. His ERA sits at 4.09. Then there is John Lackey, who no one expected to be as good as the three other aforementioned Cubs, but at least expected good numbers from the veteran right-hander. Instead he has constantly been slammed, most recently to the Washington Nationals as he was torched for eight runs in that start. He did have a solid start versus Atlanta after that one, but his ERA is still a bloated 5.04 ERA. Jose Quintana was acquired and had a great first start for the Cubbies, but he has not been great overall this season, but the Cubs hope he helps them come back in the NL Central standings. Compared to last year, the Cubs rotation has done a complete 180.

 

Jose Feliciano can be reached at jose.feliciano@student.shu.edu.

Posted in: Sports